The Relationships among Capital Flow Surges, Reversals and Sudden Stops
نویسندگان
چکیده
We contribute to the growing literature on the behavior of capital flow surges and their relationships with sudden stops and capital flow reversals. We suggest a definition of true sudden stops based on gross foreign flows that is a subset of net capital flow reversals. We find that a majority of surges end in reversals of some type and this percentage is only slightly over half for surges in net capital flows and about 70 percent in the case of gross capital flows. Neither a majority of sudden stops nor capital flow reversals are preceded by surges. a Claremont Institute for Economic Policy Studies (CIEPS) b Pepperdine University and Claremont Institute for Economic Policy Studies (CIEPS) c Western Washington University and Claremont Institute for Economic Policy Studies (CIEPS) d Horton Professor of Economics, Claremont Graduate University and Claremont McKenna College and Director of Claremont Institute for Economic Policy Studies (CIEPS)
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